Chuck roll prices run opposite the grilling season: weakest against the rest of the carcass in May and June, strongest in the fall and in January. Measured against the Choice cutout, the chuck roll lost ground in every May and every June from 2016 to 2026. Not most of them. All eleven.
The chuck roll is the boneless roll out of the beef chuck (IMPS 116A), the cut behind chuck roasts and chuck eye steaks. USDA prints it every day in dollars per hundredweight (cwt, 100 pounds). The Choice cutout is USDA's estimate of what a Choice carcass is worth once cut into boxes.
When is chuck roll cheapest?
| Month | Chuck roll vs Choice cutout | Years above average |
|---|---|---|
| October | +12.8% | 8 of 10 |
| January | +9.4% | 10 of 11 |
| November | +7.3% | 8 of 10 |
| September | +7.3% | 10 of 11 |
| April | -6.9% | 1 of 11 |
| May | -10.9% | 0 of 11 |
| June | -11.5% | 0 of 11 |
Zero for eleven in May and June, next to ten for eleven in January and September, is the strongest counter-season in Choice beef. USDA printed 39 Choice cuts on most trading days since 2016. The chuck roll is the only one that lost ground to the cutout in every May and every June. The swing from the June low to the October high is about 24 points.
The chuck roll's own price points the same way, just more quietly. It is lowest in June and July, about 6 to 7 percent under its yearly average, and highest in October, about 9.5 percent over.
Why the chuck roll is the anti-grill cut
The chuck roll is a roasting and braising cut. Its demand lives in pot roast, slow cooking and cold-weather retail features. None of that is grill demand.
So when the cutout rallies in May and June, the rally is in the loin and grilling cuts: strip loins, top sirloin, tri-tip, outside skirt. The chuck roll loses ground to the cutout even when its own price holds flat. In the fall the steak cuts go quiet and the chuck gets its turn.
January is the standout, above average in 10 of 11 years. After the holidays, retail turns to value cuts and slow-cook programs while the rib and loin fall off their December highs.
How to use it
If you buy chuck roll for a roast or grind program, early summer is reliably your window. June and July are its cheapest months on its own price, and May and June are its weakest against the rest of the carcass. The fall is reliably your worst on both counts.
The turn is also a read on the grilling season. The chuck roll's standing against the cutout bottoms in June, and by September it is back above its yearly average in 10 of 11 years. When the chuck turns, the grilling demand is done.