Pork butt prices peak in May and June, not July. Measured against the pork cutout, boneless pork butt beat the rest of the hog in both months in 9 of the last 11 years. The barbecue premium is real. It just comes earlier, and ends earlier, than most buyers say.
The pork butt is the upper shoulder, the cut behind pulled pork. USDA prints it every day in dollars per hundredweight (cwt, 100 pounds); divide by 100 for dollars per pound. The pork cutout is USDA's estimate of what the whole hog is worth once cut into boxes.
When is pork butt most expensive against the cutout?
Measured against the whole hog, which separates what the butt does from what the market does, the premium sits in May and June.
| Month | Butt vs pork cutout | Years above average |
|---|---|---|
| May | +9.3% | 9 of 11 |
| June | +7.3% | 9 of 11 |
| September | +1.5% | 6 of 11 |
| July | -2.0% | 4 of 11 |
| October | -2.8% | 3 of 10 |
| August | -5.0% | 3 of 11 |
An edge of 7 to 9 percent over the hog, in 9 years of 11, is a genuine seasonal. The butt is the smoker and pulled-pork cut, and its edge runs from early May into early July. Split into half months, it is strongest in the second half of May, around Memorial Day, above average in 10 of 11 years.
Why July butt strength is the hog, not the butt
In raw prices the butt still looks strong in July, about 7.7 percent above its yearly average in 8 of 11 years. That number is real, but it is not a butt story. The pork cutout runs about 10 percent above its average in July. Against the cutout, the butt is -2.0 percent in July, above average in only 4 of 11 years.
The edge ends with the Fourth of July. In the second half of July, the butt sits above its usual standing against the cutout in only 2 of 11 years. What lifts it then is the summer strength lifting the whole carcass. A buyer who reads late-July butt strength as barbecue demand is paying hog-level prices for a cut whose own season has passed.
August is the clearest sign. The butt runs 5.0 percent below the cutout, above average in only 3 of 11 years, while the cutout itself is still about 6 percent above its yearly average.
How to use it
Cover summer butt needs before the May run, not during it. If you are pricing in July, price against the cutout rather than the butt's own recent history, because that raw strength belongs to the hog, not the cut.
Treat it as a tendency, not a schedule. Nine of eleven is strong, but two years in eleven did not follow, and an unusual hog supply year can swamp a seasonal this size.