The signal, scored
Twenty years of the signal, on the record.
Walk-forward backtest of the exact CHEAP / BELOW NORM / ABOVE NORM / EXPENSIVE label the scanner ships. No lookahead, no cherry-picked cuts, hit rate shown next to the rate you'd get guessing blind. Below it: every live call from the weekly note, graded in public when its window closes. Misses stay on the wall.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is a record of past calls graded against USDA prints, not trading advice.
308 cuts · 83,803 windows · 2006-04-09 → 2026-06-07
When a cut is flagged CHEAP or BELOW NORM · 4 weeks forward
62.5%firmed back up, vs 52.3% guessing blind · avg move +6.1% vs +1.2% base · n=16,468
Read this straight
- CHEAP and BELOW NORM are the strong half of the signal and the calls a buyer acts on: they beat blind by a wide margin and the average forward move is real.
- ABOVE NORM and EXPENSIVE barely beat blind. We show them anyway. A scorecard that only prints its wins is a brochure.
- Walk-forward, no lookahead. The seasonal average at each test week uses only the five prior calendar years, identical to the live scanner. Pooled across every eligible cut. Hit rate shown against the unconditional base rate over the same anchors.
- Backtest of past behavior, not a guarantee of the next print. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Not trading advice.
Full backtest tables · 2 / 4 / 8 weeks forward
2 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 59.0% | 52.4% | +6.6 pts | +3.4% | 15,953 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 61.7% | 52.4% | +9.3 pts | +4.7% | 9,329 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 50.7% | 47.6% | +3.1 pts | -0.5% | 43,964 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 51.6% | 47.6% | +4.0 pts | -0.7% | 35,324 |
4 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 62.5% | 52.3% | +10.2 pts | +6.1% | 16,468 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 64.9% | 52.3% | +12.6 pts | +8.1% | 9,688 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.4% | 47.7% | +4.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,994 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.0% | 47.7% | +6.3 pts | -1.2% | 36,184 |
8 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 65.6% | 52.9% | +12.7 pts | +8.9% | 16,880 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 68.3% | 52.9% | +15.4 pts | +11.3% | 9,977 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.8% | 47.1% | +5.7 pts | -0.8% | 45,681 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.7% | 47.1% | +7.6 pts | -1.5% | 36,743 |
Graded in public
Live calls from the weekly note.
Every directional call ships dated, then gets graded against the cut's actual USDA print when the window closes. Wins and misses both stay on the wall, priced off the same series the chart shows.
Hit rate · last 90d
43%
9/21 graded
Right in a row
3
longest in 90d · current 0
Live calls
2
windows still open
By call typefirm 50% · 5-5soft 36% · 4-7
Pending · 2 open
PENDINGham, trimmed selectedpork
Called firm · Called Oct 10 · 14-day window · 10d left
“Call: ham firm. The trimmed selected ham at about 67 c/lb should be higher by the Friday after next.”
meatread.com
67.14¢/lb → 64.82¢/lb
-3.5%
▶ Off direction so far
PENDINGpork buttpork
Called firm · Called Oct 3 · 14-day window · 3d left
“New call: boneless butt combo firm two weeks out, from about 117 cents — cheapest pork cut outside bellies, about a quarter under its normal early-October level, with processed pork pulling ad space into bacon and sausage season. Buy October and early-November butt needs now.”
117.21¢/lb → 128.55¢/lb
+9.7%
▶ Right direction so far
Recent receipts
MISSEDpork bellypork
Called firm · Called Sep 26 · 14-day window · resolved
“Call: 13-17# belly firm, two weeks out, from about 113 c/lb. The discount is the deepest on any beef or pork item, and nobody in the chain has room to cut the price.”
112.98¢/lb → 110.29¢/lb
-2.4%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDpork bellypork
Called firm · Called Sep 12 · 14-day window · resolved
“New call: belly 13-17# firms over the next two weeks from about 140. The discount is real, the buyer who was going to step away already did, and a packer losing money on every head has nothing left to give on the quote; buy bellies now rather than waiting for a print that proves it.”
139.70¢/lb → 112.98¢/lb
-19.1%
▼ Missed the call
MISSED50CLbeef
Called firm · Called Sep 5 · 14-day window · resolved
“New call: 50CL higher two weeks out. The break has left it well under where it normally sits this week of the year, and grinders staring at 90CL priced far above normal will lean harder on cheap fat to make the blend work. Buy 50s now.”
99.98¢/lb → 88.96¢/lb
-11.0%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDstrip loinbeef
Called soft · Called Aug 29 · 14-day window · resolved
“One call this week: strip loin is softer two weeks from now than the roughly $9.67 it printed Friday. The holiday buying is done, the ad page is rotating away from the middles, and buyers quit paying up for Choice.”
966.78¢/lb → 976.17¢/lb
+1.0%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDpork 72% trim combopork
Called firm · Called Aug 22 · 14-day window · resolved
“New call: pork 72% trim combo firms over the next two weeks. It sits deep in the discount bucket, it is falling slower than the hams, and packers at breakeven cannot sell it cheaper.”
87.97¢/lb → 82.59¢/lb
-6.1%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDground beef 81%beef
Called soft · Called Aug 15 · 14-day window · resolved
“Ground 81% near $3.45 is down hard over four weeks and still sits above a normal August price. Cover what you need, nothing longer, and let the move keep working for you.”
345.17¢/lb → 352.24¢/lb
+2.1%
▼ Missed the call
NAILED ITground beef 73%beef
Called soft · Called Aug 15 · 14-day window · resolved
“Ground 73% near $2.87 is down hard over four weeks and still sits above a normal August price. Cover what you need, nothing longer, and let the move keep working for you.”
287.33¢/lb → 272.83¢/lb
-5.1%
▲ Beat the call
NAILED ITstrip loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“This week's call: strip loin is higher two weeks from now than the $9.12 it printed Friday.”
911.94¢/lb → 975.95¢/lb
+7.0%
▲ Beat the call
NAILED ITshort loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“The loins are the buy. They have repriced, the turn is two weeks old, and Labor Day is still in front of us.”
760.95¢/lb → 764.98¢/lb
+0.5%
▲ Beat the call
MISSEDribeyebeef
Called soft · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“Rib is the opposite trade: it never came down and its premium is widening, so cover the minimum and wait it out.”
1357.12¢/lb → 1447.82¢/lb
+6.7%
▼ Missed the call
NAILED ITstrip loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Strip loin is down about 18% in four weeks and both are back to roughly what they normally cost in August. Buy the loins and leave the rib alone.”
880.43¢/lb → 928.61¢/lb
+5.5%
▲ Beat the call
MISSEDshort loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Short loin 16% down and back to roughly what they normally cost in August. Buy the loins and leave the rib alone.”
747.57¢/lb → 739.94¢/lb
-1.0%
▼ Missed the call