Each weekly Meat Read ships with directional calls on named cuts. Once a call's window elapses we grade it against the cut's actual USDA daily print. Receipts up top, the 20-year statistical floor under it.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is a record of past calls graded against USDA prints, not trading advice.
Walk-forward, no lookahead. We tagged every week in the history of all 306 cuts with the same CHEAP / BELOW NORM / ABOVE NORM / EXPENSIVE label the scanner uses today, then measured what actually happened 4 and 8 weeks later across 82,286 windows (2006-04-09 → 2026-03-22). Hit rate next to the rate you'd get guessing blind.
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 62.4% | 52.3% | +10.1 pts | +6.1% | 16,207 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 64.7% | 52.3% | +12.4 pts | +8.1% | 9,539 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.4% | 47.7% | +4.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,282 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.0% | 47.7% | +6.3 pts | -1.2% | 35,615 |
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 65.5% | 52.9% | +12.6 pts | +8.9% | 16,603 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 68.2% | 52.9% | +15.3 pts | +11.3% | 9,820 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.7% | 47.0% | +5.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,927 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.6% | 47.0% | +7.6 pts | -1.5% | 36,141 |