The signal, scored
Twenty years of the signal, on the record.
Walk-forward backtest of the exact CHEAP / BELOW NORM / ABOVE NORM / EXPENSIVE label the scanner ships. No lookahead, no cherry-picked cuts, hit rate shown next to the rate you'd get guessing blind. Below it: every live call from the weekly note, graded in public when its window closes. Misses stay on the wall.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is a record of past calls graded against USDA prints, not trading advice.
308 cuts · 83,803 windows · 2006-04-09 → 2026-06-07
When a cut is flagged CHEAP or BELOW NORM · 4 weeks forward
62.5%firmed back up, vs 52.3% guessing blind · avg move +6.1% vs +1.2% base · n=16,468
Read this straight
- CHEAP and BELOW NORM are the strong half of the signal and the calls a buyer acts on: they beat blind by a wide margin and the average forward move is real.
- ABOVE NORM and EXPENSIVE barely beat blind. We show them anyway. A scorecard that only prints its wins is a brochure.
- Walk-forward, no lookahead. The seasonal average at each test week uses only the five prior calendar years, identical to the live scanner. Pooled across every eligible cut. Hit rate shown against the unconditional base rate over the same anchors.
- Backtest of past behavior, not a guarantee of the next print. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Not trading advice.
Full backtest tables · 2 / 4 / 8 weeks forward
2 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 59.0% | 52.4% | +6.6 pts | +3.4% | 15,953 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 61.7% | 52.4% | +9.3 pts | +4.7% | 9,329 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 50.7% | 47.6% | +3.1 pts | -0.5% | 43,964 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 51.6% | 47.6% | +4.0 pts | -0.7% | 35,324 |
4 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 62.5% | 52.3% | +10.2 pts | +6.1% | 16,468 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 64.9% | 52.3% | +12.6 pts | +8.1% | 9,688 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.4% | 47.7% | +4.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,994 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.0% | 47.7% | +6.3 pts | -1.2% | 36,184 |
8 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM tends to firm | 65.6% | 52.9% | +12.7 pts | +8.9% | 16,880 |
CHEAP (strict · ≤ -12% vs norm) tends to firm | 68.3% | 52.9% | +15.4 pts | +11.3% | 9,977 |
ABOVE NORM or EXPENSIVE tends to soften | 52.8% | 47.1% | +5.7 pts | -0.8% | 45,681 |
EXPENSIVE (strict · ≥ +12% vs norm) tends to soften | 54.7% | 47.1% | +7.6 pts | -1.5% | 36,743 |
Graded in public
Live calls from the weekly note.
Every directional call ships dated, then gets graded against the cut's actual USDA print when the window closes. Wins and misses both stay on the wall, priced off the same series the chart shows.
Hit rate · last 90d
55%
24/44 graded · 3 inside noise, not counted
Right in a row
8
longest in 90d · current 1
Live calls
1
windows still open
By call typefirm 57% · 12-9soft 52% · 12-11
Pending · 1 open
PENDINGpork 72% trim combopork
Called firm · Called Aug 22 · 14-day window · 7d left
“New call: pork 72% trim combo firms over the next two weeks. It sits deep in the discount bucket, it is falling slower than the hams, and packers at breakeven cannot sell it cheaper.”
87.97¢/lb → 81.87¢/lb
-6.9%
▶ Off direction so far
Recent receipts
MISSEDstrip loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 15 · 14-day window · resolved
“Strip loin is still the call we like: it has repriced and the grade support is back under it, and that support matters more than the calendar from here. Strip loin is on track since the August 8 call and prints near $9.29.”
928.61¢/lb → 919.32¢/lb
-1.0%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDground beef 81%beef
Called soft · Called Aug 15 · 14-day window · resolved
“Ground 81% near $3.45 is down hard over four weeks and still sits above a normal August price. Cover what you need, nothing longer, and let the move keep working for you.”
345.17¢/lb → 352.24¢/lb
+2.1%
▼ Missed the call
NAILED ITground beef 73%beef
Called soft · Called Aug 15 · 14-day window · resolved
“Ground 73% near $2.87 is down hard over four weeks and still sits above a normal August price. Cover what you need, nothing longer, and let the move keep working for you.”
287.33¢/lb → 272.83¢/lb
-5.1%
▲ Beat the call
NAILED ITstrip loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“This week's call: strip loin is higher two weeks from now than the $9.12 it printed Friday.”
911.94¢/lb → 975.95¢/lb
+7.0%
▲ Beat the call
NAILED ITshort loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“The loins are the buy. They have repriced, the turn is two weeks old, and Labor Day is still in front of us.”
760.95¢/lb → 764.98¢/lb
+0.5%
▲ Beat the call
MISSEDribeyebeef
Called soft · Called Aug 8 · 14-day window · resolved
“Rib is the opposite trade: it never came down and its premium is widening, so cover the minimum and wait it out.”
1320.57¢/lb → 1371.20¢/lb
+3.8%
▼ Missed the call
NAILED ITstrip loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Strip loin is down about 18% in four weeks and both are back to roughly what they normally cost in August. Buy the loins and leave the rib alone.”
880.43¢/lb → 928.61¢/lb
+5.5%
▲ Beat the call
MISSEDshort loinbeef
Called firm · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Short loin 16% down and back to roughly what they normally cost in August. Buy the loins and leave the rib alone.”
747.57¢/lb → 739.94¢/lb
-1.0%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDribeyebeef
Called soft · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Ribeye has barely moved and still runs about 27% above normal. Buy the loins and leave the rib alone.”
1216.64¢/lb → 1262.54¢/lb
+3.8%
▼ Missed the call
MISSEDchuck flapbeef
Called soft · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“Chuck flap is the one to move. Down about 12% and still expensive. If you are holding it, sell it.”
797.02¢/lb → 860.02¢/lb
+7.9%
▼ Missed the call
NAILED ITpork bellypork
Called firm · Called Aug 2 · 14-day window · resolved
“This week's call: pork bellies at 189 cents. Still cheap for August and climbing for a month now.”
237.81¢/lb → 240.87¢/lb
+1.3%
▲ Beat the call
NAILED ITpork bellypork
Called firm · Called Jul 26 · 9-day window · resolved
“The belly firm call from July 5 is the one position that continues to earn its keep, up 15.9% against entry with 9 days left. Bellies at 190.90 c/lb are now 18% below their seasonal norm with four-week momentum at +14.9%, carrying a CHEAP flag and accelerating.”
216.62¢/lb → 236.70¢/lb
+9.3%
▲ Beat the call