The read, scored
How often is the read right?
Every tool can draw a chart. The question that matters is whether the call holds up. So we backtested the exact CHEAP/EXPENSIVE signal you see on the scanner, walk-forward, no lookahead, across 306 cuts and 82,286 historical windows (2006-04-09 to 2026-03-22). The number that proves the point is shown next to the number you'd get guessing blind.
When MeatRead flags a cut CHEAP · 4 weeks out
62.4%reverted up, vs 52.3% guessing blind · avg move +6.1% vs +1.3% base · n=16,207
4 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM reverts up | 62.4% | 52.3% | +10.1 pts | +6.1% | 16,207 |
CHEAP (strict, ≤ -12%) reverts up | 64.7% | 52.3% | +12.4 pts | +8.1% | 9,539 |
EXPENSIVE or ABOVE NORM reverts down | 52.4% | 47.7% | +4.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,282 |
EXPENSIVE (strict, ≥ +12%) reverts down | 54.0% | 47.7% | +6.3 pts | -1.2% | 35,615 |
8 weeks forward
| Signal | Hit | Blind | Edge | Avg move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHEAP or BELOW NORM reverts up | 65.5% | 52.9% | +12.6 pts | +8.9% | 16,603 |
CHEAP (strict, ≤ -12%) reverts up | 68.2% | 52.9% | +15.3 pts | +11.3% | 9,820 |
EXPENSIVE or ABOVE NORM reverts down | 52.7% | 47.0% | +5.7 pts | -0.8% | 44,927 |
EXPENSIVE (strict, ≥ +12%) reverts down | 54.6% | 47.0% | +7.6 pts | -1.5% | 36,141 |
Read this straight
- CHEAP is the strong call and the one a buyer acts on: it beats the blind base rate by a wide margin and the average move is real.
- EXPENSIVE barely beats blind. We show it anyway. A scorecard that only prints its wins is a brochure, not a receipt.
- Walk-forward, no lookahead. The seasonal average at each test week uses only the five prior calendar years, identical to the live scanner. Pooled across every eligible cut. Hit rate shown against the unconditional base rate over the same anchors.
- This is a backtest of past behavior, not a guarantee of the next print. It is not trading advice.