Week of October 03, 2026
The Week
China put a 55% tariff on Brazilian beef on October 1, once Brazil filled its 2026 quota there. Brazil's biggest customer just got expensive, and that beef has to go somewhere. Much of it is the lean trim US grinders already buy, landing on top of the 300,000 tons of tariff-free imported trim the US let in on September 1. Nothing in this week's prints shows it yet; this is our read, not a price. If it lands, it adds to a lean market that is already giving way. The lean-to-fat trim gap has narrowed every week since its record in early September, and this week it closed from both ends: fat trim up about 9%, lean down about 3%.
Supply Picture
Packers put the cattle back. The kill ran about 510,000 head through Friday, 34,000 more than the week before and still about 8% under last year, after running 15% under. Cash steers eased. Margins stayed wide enough that the cattle bid is not the packer's problem this fall; expect cash to drift sideways to lower.
Demand Situation
The ad page turned to the holidays. Ground beef lost about 10,500 stores, the biggest drop on the beef page, and rib gained about 3,100, the biggest gain. Retailers are starting the holiday rib build.
Ribeye usually climbs from here into December. It was higher by mid-December in 22 of the last 24 years. But it starts this year near $13.59/lb, the highest early-October price on record and about a third over normal. The two years it fell by Christmas, 2018 and 2021, both started expensive too. Lock in only the holiday rib you can't risk being short on, and buy the rest as you go.
On the grind, last issue's advice was to ask for a lower price on lean grinds before the trim gap closed. It is closing. Fat trim firmed this week, lean eased, and 85% ground beef held near 422 cents. That ask gets weaker each week from here, so make it this week if you have not.
Brisket and outside skirt both came off about 6% in a month, and both still price well over a normal early October.
Pork Market
The belly call is on track with a week to run. We called the 13-17# belly firm from about 113; it jumped to 125 on Tuesday and closed Friday near 115. The risk we named was bacon losing more ad space. The opposite happened: processed pork added about 14,000 store ads, a full reversal of the week before.
The cheap cut in pork now is the butt. The boneless butt combo is near 117 cents, down about 18% in a month and about a quarter under a normal early October, while the rest of the pork cutout slid only about 2% on the week.
Chicken Market
Boneless thigh meat rose a third straight week, up about 4%, and is back to normal for the season. Last issue said to buy fourth-quarter thigh; that window has now closed, so stop chasing it. Breast and tenders are still under their normal early-October price, with tenders the deeper discount. That is where the remaining fall coverage belongs. Retail attention in chicken keeps moving to deli and prepared, not the parts case.
For Canadian buyers, 2027 CUSMA and CPTPP chicken access quantities posted this week, each about 1% above this year.
Summary
New call: boneless butt combo firm two weeks out, from about 117 cents. It is the cheapest pork cut outside bellies, a quarter under its normal level, and processed pork is pulling ad space back into bacon and sausage season. Buy October and early-November butt needs now. What kills it: butt features took the biggest loss on the pork ad page this week. If that keeps sliding for two more weeks, the cheap butt just sits there. In beef, make the lean-grind ask this week. On holiday rib, secure only what you can't be short on; at a record starting price, this is not a year to buy all of it early.