The rib is the holiday primal. Prime rib and ribeye roasts anchor December menus the way turkey anchors November, and wholesale prices carry that demand. But the folklore version, that ribeye simply peaks in December, is only half right, and the half that is wrong costs buyers money. Here is what the actual prints say, computed from ten years of USDA daily data (2016 through 2025) on the heavy boneless Choice ribeye, the most liquid line in the complex.
The premium is real, the peak timing is not reliable
December priced above the year's average in nine of the last ten years, by 11.5 percent on average. That is a real, recurring holiday premium, and in the strongest years it is enormous: 2022, 2023, and 2024 printed December premiums of 30, 20, and 37 percent over those years' averages. The exception was 2021, when a violent autumn spike collapsed before the holiday and December landed below the year's mean.
| Year | Dec vs yr avg | Peak month | Dec to Jan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -14.1% | Sep | -6.8% |
| 2022 | +29.9% | Dec | -9.7% |
| 2023 | +20.4% | Dec | -20.9% |
| 2024 | +36.5% | Dec | -26.9% |
| 2025 | +6.8% | Sep | -23.0% |
The unreliable part is calling December the peak. Across those ten years the single highest-priced month was December only three times. The top printed in June twice, November twice, September twice, and May once. Holiday buying is forward: retail and foodservice book their rib programs weeks ahead, so the wholesale surge often crests in November and the December print is the elevated aftermath. A buyer waiting to see the December top before acting is watching the wrong month; the run typically happens in front of it. Even the October-to-December leg is a coin flip: positive in only six of the ten years.
The part that has not missed: January
The tradeable regularity in this seasonal is not the peak, it is the break after it. January printed below December in ten year-turns out of ten (2016 through 2025), by 17.3 percent on average, with the mildest fade at 7 percent and the deepest at 27. The most recent turn made the point again: December 2025 into January 2026 broke 23 percent. Once the holiday programs ship, rib demand has no second act: no January event pulls the cut, and retail rotates to resolution-season lean proteins.
The mechanics repeat every year even though the levels don't. Supply barely changes across the year-turn; this is close to a pure demand seasonal, which is why the fade is so consistent while the peak month wanders with each year's exact ad calendar and cattle backdrop.
These numbers are computed from the same USDA series charted on this site: pull up the ribeye chart, turn on the five-year seasonal overlay, and the December shoulder and January cliff are visible on the band itself. A watchlist alert set below the current print is the simple way to catch the January break without watching the market daily.