Week of October 10, 2026

The Week

USDA cut its beef and pork forecasts on Friday: 75 million pounds less beef this year and 150 million pounds less pork, because plants are killing slower and hogs are coming in lighter. The market read it the other way. The cuts that fill an October order book are the ones falling. Peeled knuckle broke under its three week range and is off about 23% in a month. Brisket is off 11%. The trimmed ham is down 12% this week alone and the pork trim under it fell harder. The rib, the chuck roll and the short loin are still climbing. Less meat on paper and cheaper prints on the floor are both true, because the shortage is in the middle meats and the surplus is in everything around them.

Supply Picture

The cattle are heavy. Steers are dressing about 1,028 pounds, 37 pounds over last year and 57 over normal for the week. Fewer cattle but more beef per head, and the extra beef comes off as fat and end meats, not rib.

The kill itself recovered for a second week, to about 526,000 head through Friday, 16,000 more than the week before and 3% under last year, after running 15% under in late September.

That is the slower kill USDA wrote into Friday's forecast, and it raised imports at the same time, by 85 million pounds, mostly from Australia. The talk of a new import opening this week was the August order: 300,000 tons of low tariff lean in three monthly tranches, the second of which opened October 1, on top of the Argentine quota quadrupled in February. The trim market has known about all of it for six weeks.

Demand Situation

The round is where beef is breaking. Peeled knuckle printed 349 c/lb Friday; eye of round, top inside and the gooseneck are all down between 3% and 6% in a month, and brisket is 11% lower. These are the cuts a fall roast program and a grinder both lean on, and both have other options this month.

Chuck roll and short loin went the other way, up 9% and 14% in four weeks, and both sit about a third over a normal October.

Retail just made its choice. Ground beef ads jumped by about 24,000 stores this week to 61,000, half again what ran a year ago, while chicken lost 28,000 stores from its page. Retailers bought that lean three weeks ago, when lean trim was sliding, and the ads are the receipt.

Last week we said: ask your supplier for a lower price on lean ground beef, because the trim it is made from got cheaper. The trim is down 8% in a month. 85% ground beef came down 4%, half of that, and 81% did not come down at all. Your supplier's cost fell more than his price. Ask again this week.

Pork Market

Hams are the cheap pork going into the holiday. The trimmed selected ham printed 67 c/lb Friday, down 12% on the week and 23% under what it usually costs in early October, and ham ads added 3,400 stores this week, more than any other pork cut.

The weakness under it is trim: the 72% combo fell 15% this week and the 42% combo is down nearly 30% in a month.

The pork cutout is near $80, down 10% in a month, and hogs are not the reason: the kill ran about 2,460,000 head, 1.5% over last year.

USDA cut its hog price forecast for this quarter by $3. Last week's butt call is up 10% with a week to run.

Chicken Market

Boneless skinless thigh meat printed 168 c/lb on Friday's weekly report, up 13% in four weeks without a lower close. Wings sit 27% under their usual October price and tenders 38% under, and nobody at retail is lifting them: the stores ran ground beef this week and cut chicken. The thigh bid is coming from somewhere else, not the ad page.

Summary

Call: ham firm. The trimmed selected ham at about 67 c/lb should be higher by the Friday after next. It is 23% under what it usually costs in early October, retail just started featuring it, and the holiday ham buy comes before the holiday ad, not after. What breaks it is the trim: if the 72% combo keeps falling at this week's pace, the ham follows it down before the buyers show up.