Week of September 26, 2026

The Week

Lean beef trim and fat beef trim have been further apart in price this summer than at any time in the USDA record. 50CL is near 88 c/lb. 90CL is near 411 c/lb. Every week since early August has been wider than any week in the twenty-year record before it. The gap peaked in early September and has narrowed a little since. Ground beef is a mix of the two: the fattier the grind, the more fat trim in it. The question is how much of the cheap fat has reached ground beef. On the fat grinds, most of it. On the lean grinds, not much.

Supply Picture

Packers cut the cattle kill hard this week. The daily estimates fell from about 105,000 head on Monday to 87,000 on Friday, and the week came in near 476,000 head through Friday, about 15% under the same week last year.

Last week was about 6% under. Cash steers eased to about $222/cwt. Packers short of cattle pay more to get them. This week they paid less and killed fewer, which protects the cutout and their margin.

Weight is doing the rest. Steers are about 50 pounds heavier than normal for late September, and the extra mostly comes off as fat trim. That is why the Choice cutout can sit near $379/cwt while trim falls by a third.

The cattle-to-cutout spread improved to about $461 a head, which leaves roughly $61 to $211 a head after plant costs. Even the most expensive plants are making money this week. Santa Teresa, the busiest cattle crossing on the border, reopened to Mexican cattle Thursday.

Demand Situation

Ground beef is on about 52,000 store ads this week, roughly 30% more than usual for late September.

Fat trim is about a quarter of an 81% grind, so the raw material for that grind got about 11% cheaper in a month, not a third.

The fat grinds passed most of it on: 73% ground beef is down about 12% against a raw-material move of about 14%.

The leaner the grind, the less has come through. 81% ground beef is down about 8%, most of its input move.

85% ground beef is down only about 4% while its raw material fell about 10%. If you buy lean grinds, that gap is yours to ask for.

Loin ads are back for the second time in three weeks, up about 7,000 stores. Short loin is the cut paying for it: up about 23% in a month and 39% above its normal level. Chuck roll is up about 12% on the same ad pages. Buy both only as you need them. The stores running those ads pay today's price to fill them. You do not have to.

Pork Market

The belly did what last issue asked. Hog futures ended the week flat. The 13-17# belly printed almost the same price on Tuesday and Wednesday, then closed the week near 113 c/lb, still about 37% below normal for this week.

This is not a supply story. The hog kill this week ran level with a year ago, and pork packers are at roughly breakeven, so nobody can cut the price further. The belly is cheap because bacon is not selling, not because hogs are scarce. Processed pork lost about 16,000 store ads this week, the biggest drop on any of the three ad pages.

Chicken Market

Chicken's ad push is not in the parts case. Stores added about 11,600 chicken ads this week, mostly rotisserie and prepared. In the parts, boneless thigh meat rose for a second week, up 3.5%, and still sits 8% below a normal late September. Tenders are still at less than half their normal price. That is the US picture. In Canada thighs are short and the question is import quota, room and price. Buy fourth-quarter US thigh needs now if you have the room.

Global Affairs Canada has put unused 2026 chicken quota back on offer, first come first served, for holders who used at least 90% of theirs. The quantities are on the Quota Watch page.

Summary

Call: 13-17# belly firm, two weeks out, from about 113 c/lb. Both conditions from last issue were met. The discount is the deepest in beef or pork, and nobody in the chain has room to cut the price. One caution: Friday's print is near the top of the range since the drop stopped. You are not buying the low.

Bacon is the risk. If processed pork keeps losing ads into October, bacon makers stay away and the cheap belly just sits there. In beef, take the record trim gap to your supplier and ask for a lower price on lean grinds. Leave the middle meats and chuck roll to the stores that are advertising them.