Boneless skinless chicken breast is the anchor of the US wholesale chicken market, and its price follows a clear yearly pattern. On USDA's weekly chicken report it runs highest in April and May and lowest from November to January. In the week of October 5 to 9, 2026, USDA's weighted average was 118.68 cents a pound. Over the 52 weeks to that print it ranged from about 111 to 175 cents.
That is the wholesale price, FOB plant: the price at the packer's dock, before freight. Store prices run higher. In USDA's survey of grocery ads (AMS 2756), fresh boneless skinless breast averaged an advertised $2.70 a pound from January to early October 2026. These are US prices. Canada's chicken market is supply-managed, so US prints do not set Canadian prices.
This piece is about the calendar: when breast is usually cheap, when it is usually expensive, and how steady that pattern has been.
When chicken breast is cheap and when it is expensive
Breast is a grilling item. It firms into spring and early summer and sags through the holiday quarter, when turkey, ham and beef roasts own the center of the plate. That runs opposite to the instinct that meat gets expensive at the holidays.
Each month below is measured against its own season's average, September to August. That keeps an expensive year from distorting the shape.
| Month | Avg vs season | Seasons above avg | Vs whole bird |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | +20% | 4 of 4 | +14% |
| May | +21% | 4 of 4 | +14% |
| September | +18% | 3 of 4 | +22% |
| November | -22% | 0 of 4 | -18% |
| December | -25% | 0 of 4 | -24% |
| January | -19% | 0 of 4 | -19% |
April and May finished above their season's average in all four seasons. November, December and January finished below in all four. The gap between May and December is about 46 points of the season's average. That is wide enough to matter to a buying program.
Is it breast, or the whole bird?
A seasonal in one cut can just be the whole market moving, so check it against the whole bird. USDA's National Composite Whole Bird price moves far less through the year. Its strongest month runs about 7 percent over its season average, and its weakest about 6 percent under. The last column above measures breast against that whole bird price, and the shape holds. Breast runs rich to the bird in spring and early fall, and cheap to it from November to January in all four seasons.
Four seasons is a short sample, so treat the size as an estimate and check it each year against the current print.
Why the season holds
Two forces keep the shape steady even when the price level moves a long way.
The grocery ad calendar is seasonal. In USDA's chicken feature data from 2019 to 2025, chicken ad activity ran above its yearly average every July and August and below it every November. The wholesale buying for summer ads comes before the ads run, which fits a breast price that peaks in April and May. The holiday quarter belongs to other proteins, whatever chicken costs.
Supply responds, but late. A market broiler is usually slaughtered before it is two months old, per USDA's Economic Research Service. So a run of strong breast prices does bring more birds, but it takes months to arrive. That softens the price level without erasing the shape.
On week-to-week moves since September 2022, boneless skinless breast swings more than any other meat line on the report, tenders, wings, thigh meat and leg quarters included. Its broad demand makes it the market's main event, and the line that reprices hardest when demand shifts.
How a buyer uses it
Read the breast line first for direction, then check whether the rest of the table agrees. When breast, tenders and wings firm together, that is real white meat demand. When breast moves alone, look at the grocery ad cycle first. And when breast is cheap in the holiday quarter, that is the normal shape of the year, not a signal. The comparison that matters is the same weeks in prior years, not last month.