In May 2026 the packer's slice of a pound of Choice beef was six and a half cents. That is the gap between what the steer cost, net of the hide and offal credit, and what the cutout was worth, per pound of beef that reached the shelf. It is the smallest number in 56 years of the series. In May 2020, with plants closed and the wholesale value at $6.39 a pound, the same slice was $3.89, the largest ever. The two months, six years apart, are the whole story of who gets the beef dollar.
The four numbers ERS publishes
USDA's Economic Research Service prices Choice beef at three stages every month, all per pound of what reaches the shelf, and the spreads between them are the slices.
| Per retail pound, October 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Store price (BLS retail survey) | $9.95 |
| Wholesale value (the Choice cutout, retail weight) | $5.55 |
| Net farm value (the steer, less the byproduct credit) | $4.94 |
| The store's slice, wholesale to retail | $4.40 |
| The packer's slice, farm to wholesale | $0.61 |
The packer's slice is the number the Supply Desk packer margin card tracks week by week in dollars a head. This is the same thing in cents a pound, from USDA's own accounting, going back to 1970.
Where the packer's slice went
| Farm to wholesale, average, cents a pound | |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 84 |
| 2020 | 122 |
| 2021 | 157 |
| 2022 | 91 |
| 2023 | 71 |
| 2024 | 55 |
| 2025 | 44 |
| 2026 | 33 |
The slice has fallen every year since 2021, and 2026 is the year it touched zero. It printed under 21 cents in five months of this year: 19.5 in January, 6.7 in February, 20.1 in April, 6.5 in May and 12.9 in June. Before 2026 the last month under twenty cents was November 2014. By September it had recovered to 71 cents and October printed 61, which is the recovery the packer margin card has shown since Labor Day: a packer back in the money for the first time in months.
Why it closed is the cattle cycle. The steer was the dear input. Net farm value set its record of $5.75 a pound in May 2026, and the rancher took 52 cents of every retail dollar this year and 53 last year, against 38 cents in 2020, 48 in 2023, and 62 cents back in 1980. The cattle herd article covers why there are fewer cattle; this page is only about where the money went.
The store's slice and the store price
The store price set its record in July 2026 at $10.49 a pound, and the 2026 average is up 9 percent on 2025, which was itself up 14 percent on 2024. The store's slice set its own record in the same month, $4.91 a pound, and it was still $4.40 in October.
So the shelf did not absorb the rancher's year. It passed it on and added to it. In October the shelf was $9.95 against $10.11 a year earlier, and the steer was $4.94 against $5.35: the farm value fell 8 percent on the year, the shelf fell 2.
How fast the shelf follows, beef against pork
This is where beef differs from pork, and the pork page has the pork half.
| Since 2000 | Choice beef | Pork |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly change at the shelf tracks the wholesale change | the same month and the next | one and two months later |
| Six-month wholesale rise of more than a dime, median shelf change | +26 cents | +11 cents |
| Six-month wholesale fall of more than a dime, median shelf change | -9 cents | -3 cents |
| Cents of shelf change per dollar of wholesale change, over a year | 72 | 42 |
Beef retail follows the cutout faster and further than pork retail follows the pork cutout, in both directions. A drop in the Choice cutout reaches the shelf, slowly and in part; a drop in the pork cutout mostly does not. The asymmetry is still there, rises carry about three times what falls do, but a beef buyer waiting for the shelf has less long to wait.