Week of June 15, 2026

This Week

• Choice Select spread surged to widest in three months on genuine quality pull.
• Net beef production posted second consecutive contraction above 6%.
• Ribeye climbed despite retail middle meat activity bleeding.

Supply Picture

Net beef production contracted meaningfully year over year for the second consecutive week.

Fed kill ran light but carcasses still average 25 pounds above last year, so the realistic supply hit is the smaller production number. That back to back confirmation of tonnage contraction shows packer margin stress at deeply negative levels is forcing sustained capacity cuts. Cash cattle held at 256.53 per hundredweight while live cattle futures gained 0.1% over five days to 249.88, leaving the basis deeply inverted and no relief for packers locked into forward commitments.

Steer carcass weights retreated at the fastest pace in six weeks to 995 pounds, a signal that the heaviest outliers have cleared. Weights remain 25 pounds heavier year over year and 62 pounds above the five year seasonal norm, which absorbed about one percentage point of the kill contraction. Quality grade abundance slipped to 87.6% Choice or better, still up 3.3 percentage points from last year, but the share of weekly traded loads moving at Choice fell 1.7 percentage points to 29.8%. Prime share of trade climbed 0.6 points to 5.6%. The gap between upstream carcass quality and downstream spot trade share tells you the upper third premium is finding branded and export routes rather than the spot market.

Cold storage remains 5.6% below the three year norm for beef. New World screwworm detections in Texas climbed to 12 confirmed cases as of June 14, expanding the TAHC infested zone protocol to cover Zavala, La Salle, and Gillespie counties under 20 kilometer quarantine radii. The 18 month southern border closure is already priced into feeder supply, but any zone expansion northward or a detection outside the southern Texas region would tighten the 2027 supply pipeline before the Metapa sterile fly facility comes online.

Demand Situation

The Choice Select spread widened to the most substantial premium in three months, confirming that buyers are willing to pay for grade when tonnage tightens.

Choice cutout dropped 1.28 cents on the day to 391.93 per hundredweight while Select lagged at 372.72, leaving a spread that is nearly double last week's 10.01 cents and the widest since mid March. That expansion reversed the five week compression to just 1.91 cents and signals a genuine shift in quality demand posture, not a Select supply crisis. Prime share of traded loads climbed to 5.6% and the spread firmed despite Choice share of loads dropping to 29.8%, which tells you the loads that did move commanded a real premium.

Middle meats delivered positive four week momentum even as retail activity faded. Ribeye momentum accelerated modestly over four weeks to 1,274.32, strip loin added 0.7% to 944.24, tenderloin lost 0.6% to 1,545.18, short loin dropped 1.6% to 824.55. All four still trade 1% to 30% above seasonal but the ribeye momentum gain is the cleanest signal, now 30% above seasonal and within the five year interquartile band. Top butt bled 7.8% over four weeks to 578.68, the weakest middle meat and still 42% above seasonal, a clear fade candidate. The strategic tension this week is that wholesale middle meats are firming while retail promotional weight has shifted elsewhere. That retail rotation typically brings wholesale softness two to three weeks later, but the supply tightening at meaningful production loss is running ahead of the demand fade. Buyers who extended ribeye and strip coverage two weeks ago when the negotiating window was closing should hold; those who waited now face a spread that says the leverage has shifted. Top butt remains the one middle meat where buyers can still push price down aggressively.

The round complex stalled after last week's upturn. Outside round added 0.3% momentum to 416.14, top round lost 0.3% to 431.59, eye round climbed 5.2% to 460.33, all now trading 29% to 37% above seasonal. Chuck flap surged 6.3% over four weeks to 1,033.84, now 45% above seasonal and reflecting sustained taco and burrito demand. Chuck roll lost 0.6% to 486.32 and shoulder clod gained 3.2% to 434.39, both signals that buyers are selective about which value cuts to extend. Flank steak led all cuts for the third consecutive week with strong upward momentum over four weeks to 1,005.64, now 30% above seasonal and still pulling on fajita programs where portion cost hides in the build. Inside skirt dropped 8.6% to 699.81, the sharpest four week decline in the skirt complex and a rare divergence from flank.

Trim And Grind

Ground 81% surged 5.5% in four weeks to 398.83, the strongest grind momentum in two months and a signal that burger demand is holding despite elevated retail pricing.

Ground 73% added 4.6% over the same window to 348.13, now 33% above seasonal. Lean trim firmed across the middle of the band; 65CL momentum accelerated in four weeks to 253.90 and 85CL gained 2.9% to 412.29, both tracking the grind strength and reflecting constrained lean availability. The 50CL trim at 37% above seasonal lost 1.5% momentum, suggesting the sharpest lean gains have passed. Grind is acting as a support pillar for cutout value, which matters because retail ground beef promotional intensity surged week over week, reversing the Memorial Day unwind and delivering the strongest single week gain in a month. If retail ground beef features keep building at this pace, wholesale grind should hold firm through late June.

Pork Market

Butts climbed strongly in four weeks to 170.35, still the cleanest pork primal setup heading into late June carnitas programs.

Pork packer margins sit in a marginal band straddling zero at minus 5 to plus 3 per head, near breakeven and offering no structural constraint on kills yet. Lean hog futures fell 1.9% over five days, reversing recent gains, but butts at 170.35 are now 3% below seasonal and still climbing on pulled pork and carnitas demand as June foodservice programs extend. That four week gain is the strongest primal move in pork and a signal that foodservice demand is still pulling hard. Bellies continued to collapse, down 12.6% in four weeks to 143.42, now deeply below seasonal and the weakest primal in the complex despite sitting in peak bacon season. That inversion is now seven weeks old and the duration confirms forward contract coverage has locked out spot buyers entirely.

Loins firmed modestly, up 3.6% over four weeks to 104.39, now 7% below seasonal. Picnics climbed 7.6% to 106.31, now 9% above seasonal. St Louis ribs added 3.2%, back ribs gained 5.7%, and tenderloin climbed 6.1% to 201.56, all within normal seasonal ranges. If pork packer margins tip positive and lean hog futures stabilize above 92, primal values should firm with a seven to ten day lag.

Chicken Market

Boneless skinless breast dropped 11.9% in four weeks, now 24% below seasonal and offering the widest discount to beef in six weeks.

Wings fell another 5.2% over four weeks, now 46% below seasonal and offering a 15 to 1 discount versus beef ribeye. Chicken stores featuring climbed 22,364 week over week to 165,972, with parts up 26,658 to 105,028, the biggest single week promotional surge in eight weeks and a sign that retailers are committing hard to poultry as beef stays elevated. That activity surge tells you where retail attention and demand are flowing this week. Breast sits deep into the five year 25th percentile band and near the bottom of the seasonal range.

Boneless thigh meat gained 4.0% over four weeks to 201.60, now 8% above seasonal and reflecting labor saving preferences in chain kitchens that want to avoid bone handling. Leg quarters climbed 7.8% to 59.96, now 14% above seasonal, a low cost dark meat option for export buyers. Tenders lost 2.3% momentum to 166.14 but remain 30% below seasonal. Whole bird composite firmed 1.7% to 123.29 but remains 8% below seasonal, offering no margin relief for rotisserie programs. The chicken middle meat ad share surged 8.71 percentage points week over week to 63.28%, now up 9.08 points year over year and the highest reading in nine weeks.

Retail Demand Flow

Chicken stores featuring surged 22,364 week over week while beef middle meat ad share fell sharply, framing where retail promotional weight is flowing.

Beef stores featuring climbed 9,436 week over week to 121,207, driven by ground beef up 8,538 stores and sirloin up 4,074, consistent with post Memorial Day demand normalization rotating back into everyday programs. But beef middle meat ad share dropped significantly to 15.36%, now down 4.95 points year over year and the lowest reading in seven weeks. That ad share collapse usually brings wholesale middle meat weakness within a two to three week window, yet wholesale ribeye and strip both gained momentum over four weeks. The strategic read is that supply is tightening faster than retail demand is fading, so the typical lag may not hold this cycle.

Pork stores featuring dropped 23,740 week over week to 151,620, with loin down 12,500 stores and deli down 7,722, the largest single week decline in six weeks and a signal that retailers rotated promotional weight away from pork after the Memorial Day build. Poultry stores featuring climbed 22,364 to a total of 165,972, parts rising 26,658, and chicken middle meat ad share jumped substantially. That poultry activity gain frames where retail dollars are flowing as beef stays elevated and pork features unwind.

The Call

Supply is winning the rope pull; the tonnage contraction is real and the spread confirms buyers believe it.

Net beef production contracted sharply year over year for the second consecutive week, packer margins remain deeply negative, and the kill is compressing despite ample cattle on feed 22 weeks out. The Choice Select spread widened to the most substantial premium in three months, a quality demand signal that only shows up when buyers believe supply will tighten further. That spread doubled in one week and unwound the five week compression down to 1.91 cents, the clearest posture shift since late April.

Extend coverage on grind and ribeye where momentum is positive and retail activity supports the move. Ground 81% with solid four week momentum and retail ground beef stores up 8,538 week over week frame the cleanest setup. Ribeye with modest four week gains sits 30% above seasonal but within the five year interquartile band, structurally cleaner than late May when it traded 15% over seasonal. Hold off on top butt where 7.8% negative momentum and 42% seasonal premium say the buyer still has room to push. The top risk is that retail beef middle meat promotional weight has shifted, which normally delivers wholesale softness in a two to three week window, but the sharp production drop may absorb the demand fade before it flows through.

Watch This Week

• Thursday slaughter confirms whether the production drop extends into late June.
• Friday boxed beef tests whether Choice Select spread can hold above 18 cents.
• TAHC screwworm zone expansion; any detection outside southern Texas region shifts the narrative.