Week of June 22, 2026

This Week

• Choice Select spread widened to 22.29 cents, widest in thirteen weeks, supply wins.
• Beef middle ad share surged 13.36 points week over week, wholesale firming confirmed.
• Fed kill fell 8.0% year over year; packer margins at deeply negative confirm capacity pull.

Supply Picture

Net beef production dropped 6.6% year over year, the third consecutive week of meaningful tonnage contraction.

Fed kill ran 8.0% light at 534,600 head, the largest year over year drop since mid March. Packer margins remain deeply underwater with the implied band at negative 313 to negative 163 per head, which confirms capacity is being forced out rather than managed. Steer carcass weights fell 19 pounds over the four week trend to 1,007 pounds, yet still average 22 pounds above last year and 65 pounds above the five year seasonal norm. That weight cushion absorbed about 1.4 percentage points of the kill drop, so the realistic supply hit is the smaller production number at 6.6% down. Live cattle futures added 1.3% over five days to 254.80 per hundredweight while cash cattle fell 0.2% to 256.08, narrowing the basis inversion modestly but offering no margin relief.

Quality grade abundance held at 88.2% Choice or better, up 5.0 percentage points from last year. Choice share of traded loads climbed 1.1 points week over week to 30.9%, now up 3.5 points year over year, while Prime share of trade dropped 0.9 points to 4.7%. The grade mix shift says buyers are pulling Choice into the spot market and the widening spread at 22.29 cents confirms they are paying for it. Cold storage remains 5.6% below the three year norm for beef, which means there is no frozen buffer to absorb demand volatility.

Demand Situation

Cutout climbed on the day to 394.37 per hundredweight while the Choice Select spread widened to the most substantial premium since late March.

Choice cutout added 0.45 cents while Select lagged at 372.08, leaving a 22.29 cent spread that confirms buyers are willing to pay aggressively for grade when tonnage tightens. That spread is 16% wider week over week and the widest since March, a reversal from two weeks ago when it compressed below 20 cents. The grade mix data shows Choice share of traded loads climbed to 30.9%, up 1.1 points week over week, which tells you the loads that moved commanded a real premium.

Middle meats firmed despite the retail rotation two weeks ago that suggested wholesale softness would arrive by now. Ribeye gained 3.4% over four weeks to 1,144.91, the strongest middle meat momentum and now 21% above seasonal but within the five year interquartile band. Strip loin held flat at 1,102.39, still 27% above seasonal, tenderloin added 0.5% to 1,545.80, and short loin lost 1.3% to 821.37. Top butt bled 7.8% over four weeks to 578.68, still the weakest middle meat and 41% above seasonal, a clear fade candidate. The strategic tension resolved in favor of supply this week; retail beef middle ad share surged 13.36 percentage points week over week to 28.73%, now up 7.48 points year over year and the strongest reading in six weeks. That ad share gain combined with wholesale firmness confirms the negotiating window has closed. Buyers who extended ribeye and strip coverage three weeks ago when the leverage shifted are covered; those who waited now face a spread that says the rope pull is over and supply won. Top butt remains the one middle meat where buyers can still push price down, trading 41% above seasonal with 7.8% negative momentum.

The round complex weakened after four weeks of stability. Outside round lost 2.9% in four weeks to 405.00, top round dropped 0.7% to 425.61, eye round added 4.8% to 446.88. Chuck flap climbed 5.8% over four weeks to 1,027.72, now 44% above seasonal and reflecting sustained taco and burrito demand. Flank steak added 5.8% momentum to 1,006.35, now 31% above seasonal and still pulling on fajita programs where portion cost hides in the build. Inside skirt collapsed 10.4% to 694.13, the sharpest four week decline in the skirt complex and a rare divergence from flank that suggests buyers are rotating away from the richest skirt cuts.

Trim And Grind

Ground 81% climbed 4.6% in four weeks to 423.86, grind holding firm as retail ground beef stores surged 15,306 week over week.

Ground 73% added 4.3% over the same window to 372.75, now 43% above seasonal. Lean trim firmed across the middle of the band; 65CL momentum accelerated in four weeks to 253.56 and 85CL gained 1.8% to 410.43, both tracking the grind strength and reflecting constrained lean availability. The 50CL trim at 24% above seasonal lost 1.2% momentum, suggesting the sharpest lean gains have passed. Retail ground beef stores featuring climbed 15,306 week over week to 63,523, the strongest single week gain in two months and a signal that retailers are committing promotional weight back into ground beef after the Memorial Day unwind. If retail ground beef features keep building at this pace, wholesale grind should hold firm through early July.

Pork Market

Pork packer margins sit at deeply negative levels while butts retreated from recent highs, the cleanest pork setup has faded.

Pork packer margins remain underwater with the band at negative 12 to negative 4 per head, marginally negative but offering no structural constraint on kills yet. Lean hog futures added 2.4% over five days to 95.03 per hundredweight, but primal values are lagging the move. Butts added 1.6% over four weeks to 152.27, now 16% below seasonal. That butt retreat tells you the foodservice carnitas pull that drove May strength has faded. Bellies continued to collapse, down 6.5% in four weeks to 150.32, now 16% below seasonal and still the weakest primal in the complex despite sitting in peak bacon season. That inversion is now eight weeks old and the duration confirms forward contract coverage has locked out spot buyers entirely.

Loins firmed strongly, up 6.7% over four weeks to 105.77, now 6% below seasonal and the strongest primal move this period. Picnics climbed 9.9% to 104.59, now 5% above seasonal. St Louis ribs added 3.4%, back ribs gained 4.5%, and tenderloin climbed 5.0% to 200.39, all within normal seasonal ranges.

Chicken Market

Boneless skinless breast collapsed 12.8% in four weeks to 134.55, now 20% below seasonal and offering the widest discount to beef since late April.

Wings fell another 5.2% over four weeks to 84.56, now 48% below seasonal and offering a 13.5 to 1 discount versus beef ribeye. Tenders dropped 6.4% to 156.04, now 34% below seasonal, the sharpest four week decline in the chicken complex and a signal that retail demand for high labor value cuts has softened. Boneless thigh meat gained 4.0% over four weeks to 200.01, now 8% above seasonal and reflecting labor saving preferences in chain kitchens that want to avoid bone handling. Leg quarters climbed 6.3% to 59.29, now 13% above seasonal, a low cost dark meat option for export buyers. Whole bird composite firmed 0.6% to 122.22 but remains 8% below seasonal, offering no margin relief for rotisserie programs.

The chicken middle meat ad share dropped 2.17 percentage points week over week to 61.11%, yet remains up 8.94 points year over year. That ad share retreat follows a sharp surge two weeks ago and frames typical post promotional normalization rather than a structural demand fade.

Retail Demand Flow

Beef stores featuring surged 39,479 week over week to 160,686 while beef middle meat ad share jumped 13.36 points, confirming where retail promotional weight is flowing.

Beef stores featuring climbed 39,479, the largest single week gain in three months, driven by loin up 17,298 stores, rib up 10,239, and ground beef up 15,306. That activity surge combined with beef middle meat ad share jumping to 28.73%, now up 7.48 points year over year and the highest reading in six weeks, frames the cleanest retail demand signal since early May. The strategic read is that wholesale middle meats firmed despite the retail rotation two weeks ago because the retail ad share surge arrived faster than the typical two to three week lag. Buyers who waited for wholesale softness missed the window; the supply tightening at meaningful production loss absorbed the demand fade before it flowed through.

Pork stores featuring climbed 45,643 week over week to 197,263, with loin up 12,259 stores and processed pork up 7,125, the largest single week pork gain in four weeks and a signal that retailers rotated promotional weight back into pork after the Memorial Day unwind. Chicken stores featuring added 11,972 to 177,944, with parts up 3,720 and prepared up 7,362, consistent with normal seasonal rotation into June grilling programs.

The Call

Supply won the rope pull; the spread widened to the most substantial premium in thirteen weeks and the ad share surge confirms buyers believe tonnage will stay tight.

Three weeks ago the bear case framed retail middle meat ad share bleeding and wholesale softness arriving within two to three weeks. That read turned out to be wrong. Net beef production contracted sharply for the third consecutive week, packer margins remain deeply underwater, and the kill is compressing at the fastest pace since mid March. The Choice Select spread widened to 22.29 cents, the most substantial premium since late March, and retail beef middle ad share surged 13.36 percentage points week over week to 28.73%, the highest reading in six weeks. That combination of wholesale firmness and retail promotional weight arriving at the same time tells you supply is tightening faster than anyone expected and buyers are scrambling to cover.

Ribeye with 3.4% four week momentum and 21% seasonal premium within the five year interquartile band is the cleanest middle meat setup; buyers who extended coverage three weeks ago are covered, those who waited face elevated pricing with no negotiating leverage. Ground 81% with 4.6% four week momentum and retail ground beef stores up 15,306 week over week frames the second cleanest setup. Pork packer margins remain deeply negative, which normally precedes pork primal firmness within seven to ten days and would pull retail promotional dollars away from beef; if that rotation arrives in early July it would soften wholesale beef within two weeks.

Watch This Week

• Thursday slaughter confirms whether the 8.0% year over year drop extends into late June.
• Friday boxed beef tests whether Choice Select spread can hold above 22 cents.
• TAHC screwworm case count; the June 3 Zavala detection is three weeks old and zone expansion northward would shift the forward narrative.