Week of October 24, 2026

Cattle got dearer and boxes got cheaper. Cash steers rose about $4 to $224 a hundredweight, and the Choice cutout closed Friday near 366 c/lb, down about 3% in a month.

That took $91 a head out of the packer's spread in one week. Friday's Cattle on Feed added the other side: feedlots placed 12% fewer cattle in September than a year earlier, the fewest for the month since USDA's series began in 1996.

My read, not a print: the box is not falling for lack of cattle. Every supply number this week points tighter, so the slide is coming from the buying side, and it shows in which cuts are giving way.

Packers paid more for fewer cattle. The kill ran about 526,000 head through Friday, near 6% under the same week last year, with Friday the lightest day. The cattle-cutout spread is about $366 a head, so lean plants still make money and the dearest ones are slightly underwater; over four weeks it averages $443, which makes this one bad week, not a broken margin.

Cattle placed in September come to market about 22 weeks later, around March, so that is when the short placement shows up in the kill.

Mexican cattle get a third door Monday: Columbus, New Mexico reopens October 26, after Douglas in August and Santa Teresa in September, with Nogales, Arizona set for November 30 if conditions hold. Crossings have run under daily caps since Douglas opened, so the volume comes back slowly.

Strip loin is giving way and the rib is not. Strip and short loin are both off about 7% in four weeks and tri-tip about 14%, while boneless ribeye is up slightly over the same stretch.

Retail is where the split comes from. Rib gained about 8,650 stores on USDA's ad report this week, the biggest gain on the beef page, and the middle meats' share of beef ads rose more than 6 points. The loin is not getting that help.

Ground beef went the other way, losing about 10,800 stores and leaving the grind 22% under its own 52-week average. Overseas, beef export sales ran 30% over their four-week average, led again by South Korea and Japan.

Buy loin cuts by the week: they are falling and no ad program is pulling on them. Rib is the middle cut with retail behind it.

Pork packers are now losing money on every hog, at any plant cost, after sitting near breakeven last week. The pork cutout closed Friday near $74, about 15% lower in four weeks, and this week's average is a level it last saw at the turn of 2021.

There is more pork waiting in the freezer: USDA's Cold Storage report had 9% more pork in freezers at the end of September than a year earlier, and 7% more bellies. The hog kill is not the problem; it ran about 2,413,000 head, under 1% over last year.

Last week the loin ads looked like a floor under the loin. They gave way: loin features lost about 6,270 stores, the biggest drop on the pork page, and the loin combo is off 10% in a month. Processed pork took the ad money instead, up about 5,360 stores.

The deepest discounts are the ham muscles: outsides, insides and knuckles all sit a fifth to a quarter under their usual late October price. Buy them for the weeks you can place them.

The chicken ad page gave back most of last week's jump. Stores featuring chicken fell about 13,000, and boneless breast, the item that led the jump, fell 3.4% on the week to about 113 c/lb, 12% under its usual late October price.

Leg quarters are the dear part, about 20% over their usual level for the week, and freezers held 5% less chicken at the end of September than a year earlier. Cover breast at today's price and leave leg quarters alone.

Fewer cattle, a cheaper box, and a packer giving up margin to buy them. In pork, a cutout back to early 2021 levels and freezers fuller than last year. Monday: buy loin cuts week to week, cover ham muscles and US breast at today's prices, and leave leg quarters alone. Watch Columbus on Monday, the first new cattle crossing since September.