Cattle on Feed is a monthly NASS report that measures cattle in the U.S. feedyard system on the first of the month. It releases on the third Friday of each month at 3 PM Eastern. Three numbers carry most of the report's weight: total inventory on feed, placements during the prior month, and marketings during the prior month. Together those three numbers describe the flow of cattle through the system that produces virtually all U.S. fed beef.
What each number measures
Inventory on feed is the count of cattle currently being fed in feedyards with capacity over 1,000 head (the survey universe for the report). It is a stock measure: how many cattle are sitting in feedlots on the first of the month. Inventory on feed at the start of a month tells a buyer how much cattle supply will eventually become beef over the next four to six months, since the typical feedlot stay is 130 to 180 days.
Placements are cattle that entered feedlots during the prior calendar month. Placements are a flow measure: how many cattle started the feeding period in the previous month. Placements at the start of a particular month largely determine how many cattle will be marketed (slaughtered) roughly four to six months later, depending on placement weight and finishing pace, so placements are the primary forward indicator in the report. Heavy placements in March imply heavier marketings and beef supply in late summer. Light placements in March imply tighter marketings and firmer beef prices in that window.
Marketings are cattle that left feedlots during the prior month, almost all to slaughter. Marketings are also a flow measure but a backward-looking one: they describe production that already happened. Marketings matter as a check on the broader slaughter pace, since they should track Federal Inspected slaughter data closely.
How buyers read the report
The report releases at 3 PM Eastern with little advance leak. Trade analysts publish pre-report estimates of all three numbers, and the market reaction comes from the spread between the actual numbers and the pre-report consensus. Placements coming in 5 percent above expectations is a meaningful supply read; placements within 1 percent of expectations are close to non-events.
For a working beef buyer, the report carries actionable information on a four to six month forward horizon. Heavy placements imply heavier slaughter and softer prices ahead; light placements imply tighter slaughter and firmer prices. The lag is long enough that the report is a planning tool rather than a tactical one. A retail buyer planning beef feature programs for the late summer reads the spring Cattle on Feed reports as the most important single read on what beef will cost during their feature window.
Caveats and revisions
NASS does revise prior months' numbers when subsequent surveys turn up corrections. Most revisions are small. Occasionally a major revision lands when the underlying data showed a systematic bias (the Hogs and Pigs report has had several such revisions in recent years). For Cattle on Feed, revisions tend to be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 percent and rarely change the directional read of a prior month's report.
The report is limited to feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, surveyed across the 16 largest cattle-feeding states. Those feedlots represent roughly 85 percent of all fed cattle in the U.S. Smaller feedlots, backgrounding operations, and grass-fed programs do not appear in the monthly survey, and supplemental data on smaller lots is published annually each February. A buyer of grass-fed or specialty beef should not read the report as covering their specific supply chain.
Reading it alongside other reports
Cattle on Feed reads more usefully alongside the broader Cattle inventory report (the semi-annual NASS survey of all U.S. cattle, January and July), the WASDE production forecasts, and the weekly Federal Inspected slaughter data. The semi-annual Cattle inventory provides the population that feeds into placements over time. WASDE provides USDA's own forecast of how Cattle on Feed flows will translate into beef production. The weekly slaughter data confirms (or contradicts) the marketings number from the most recent Cattle on Feed in close to real time. Reading the four together gives a buyer a much more complete picture than reading any one in isolation.