Meat market read, Thursday, July 2, 2026

Bone-in lip-on ribeye shed 68¢/lb on the session and 135¢/lb on the week, and the seasonal forward adds another 37¢/lb from here on average, but with a range that swings 152¢/lb lower at the worst end. At 1090¢/lb it's still rich. The fade has started and history says it doesn't stop here. Strip is down 43¢/lb on the week too, and the four-week seasonal loses another 174¢/lb on average from this point. July 4th buying is already done at the wholesale level, so any firmness past today has to come from somewhere other than the grilling window. The grind complex is the wrinkle. 73% ground beef pulled back 27¢/lb on the week after last week's run, which is the right direction given how extended it got, but the supply story hasn't changed: packers are deep in the red and the kill is coming off. That's not a setup where grind corrects hard and stays there.

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