Meat market read, Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Outside skirt printed +200¢/lb on the session and the seasonal case against it is as clean as it gets: every year in the five-year sample it loses ground from here, median draw around 119¢/lb, worst case well past 150¢/lb. That run is extended and the calendar isn't helping it hold. The strip loin is the other side of that coin. Down 190¢/lb on the session, but the Fourth is Saturday and grilling demand doesn't wait. Strip is now cheap enough relative to where it's been that a retailer with shelf space to fill has reason to look at it. Lean's where the real pressure sits. 73% ground beef at 388¢/lb has added nearly 24¢/lb just today, and it's leaning into peak demand with beef loads still 22% thin. The cutout added $1.70/cwt on Choice while Select gave back $2.50/cwt, which tells you the bid is narrow. This isn't a broad rally. Cold Storage Holdings print this afternoon and if frozen buffer reads leaner than expected, the grind complex won't need much excuse to stay elevated into the long weekend.

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