Meat market read, Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Chuck flap at 992¢/lb is sitting near recent highs and has historically given back around 53¢/lb over the next four weeks, yet it's holding firm today alongside a cutout that added over 3¢/lb on thin beef loads. That's the packer pricing-power condition in plain terms: less cattle moving through the kill, less beef in the box, and packers getting their ask even on a volume base that wouldn't normally support it. Bottom sirloin flap at 785¢/lb tells a different story, shedding 90¢/lb on the session and nearly 217¢/lb on the month, with a flat four-week seasonal offering little recovery, so the carcass is splitting between cuts packers can price aggressively and cuts where the bid has simply stepped back. Short rib at 534¢/lb looks like the firmer end of the value column, with history putting another 24¢/lb on top from here. Pork running heavy loads with a softening cutout keeps grocer feature dollars chasing pork patties rather than beef, which matters at the margin for how hard retailers lean into beef features over the next two weeks heading into late June.

meatread.com