Meat market read, Monday, June 1, 2026

Tenderloin at 1614¢/lb is the loudest number on the board today, up 109¢/lb overnight and 147¢/lb on the month, but the seasonal forward drops it 102¢/lb over the next four weeks with a floor that has broken below 200¢/lb down in prior years. That's a middle-meat print running on fumes into a period that historically fades hard. The carcass split is the more durable story: 92-94CL hasn't moved in two sessions yet history adds another 10¢/lb from here with every data point in the four-year sample landing above zero, and the cow kill remains short with imports only partially filling the gap. Short ribs bounced 51¢/lb today but the monthly trend is flat, so that move reads as noise inside a quiet chuck and rib complex rather than a fresh bid. Rounds are the quiet beneficiary of softening export demand, with domestic supply freeing up on that primal even as the grind lane stays firm. The next friction point arrives when packer kill cuts, already telegraphed by margins bleeding well into the red, actually hit the chain volume in two to four weeks.

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