Beef is getting cheaper. Pork is already cheap

Steers sold at about $223 on Monday and under $215 by Friday, the December live cattle contract fell with them, and the Choice cutout gave up far less, closing Friday at 360.79, about 1% lower on the week.

Our read, not a print: the box moved first. Over four weeks the Choice cutout is down about 3.5% on weekly averages and every primal but the rib is lower, brisket and plate the most; the cattle only caught up this week. Beef is getting cheaper, but it is not cheap yet. Pork is: the lean hog contract lost 9% in five days and the cutout sits where it stood in late 2020.

The cattle kill was about 523,000 head through Friday, 7% under the same week last year, and packers paid less for cattle every day. On the week's prices, the beef packer lost about $42 a head once the cattle and the cost of running the plant were paid, a few dollars worse than the week before. Over four weeks he is still about $39 a head ahead.

The hog kill ran 1.7% over last year through Friday. Pork is not short.

Cheaper trim has reached some grinds and not others. The 81% grind is down as much as its trim, the 85% only part way, and the 73% not at all on the week's average.

Friday's 73% print at 227 was the low of the last two weeks. If you buy 73s, hold Monday's quote to that number.

The 90s are down 7% in four weeks, and the gap between lean and fat trim narrowed to 279 cents, well under the September record.

The strip loin is still the biggest mover. The Choice strip is off 11% in four weeks, up from 7% two weeks ago, and the short loin is off 14%. The ribeye did not move. Brisket, flank and the inside and outside rounds are lower too.

Do not cover December strip yet: 46 of the 53 beef cuts we track still sit over their usual price for the week, and the cattle under it got cheaper by the day. Buy it week to week. Beef export sales ran 29% under their four-week pace, a second weak week.

The ham is the one pork cut with a buyer. Ham features gained about 6,100 stores, the most of any pork section, and Mexico booked 45% of last week's pork export sales. The ham muscles are still the cheapest pork on our list: knuckles and outsides sit a quarter or more under their usual price.

With retail advertising hams and Mexico buying them, that discount closes first. Buy the ham muscles before the belly.

The rest of the carcass is still falling. The pork cutout averaged $70.73 this week, a level last seen at the end of 2020, and the belly sits at half its usual price for the week. Last week's call on belly and St Louis ribs stands, and picnic meat joins it at about a quarter under its usual price. The hog kill is over last year, so supply is not about to lift this.

The loin lost its ads and the loin combo is off 15% in four weeks: buy it week to week.

Boneless thigh meat is the dear part of the bird. At about 170 cents it is a third over its usual price for the week, while boneless breast near 110 cents sits 8% under its usual price. Most years the two sell within a few cents of each other; thigh has run over breast since February, and 60 cents is about as wide as that gap has been. That is the swap to put in front of your spec. Wings are still a quarter under their usual level; keep that coverage on.

Beef is getting cheaper and is not cheap yet; pork already is. Monday: beef week to week, the strip included, and hold the 73% grind to Friday's print. Commit on pork: ham muscles first, then belly, St Louis ribs and picnic meat for the weeks you can place them. Move spec from thigh to breast where you can. If the cattle keep falling, the beef discount you are waiting for is weeks out, not Monday.