Week of September 12, 2026
The Week
Cash cattle sat still at about $219 and the Choice cutout slipped to around 376, but live cattle futures jumped 2.5% and now trade right on top of cash. Futures are pricing tighter cattle into the fall. The packer does not have to bid for them yet. The packer cleared about $496 a head over his cattle cost this week, a touch better than last week, and nothing in the kill is forcing his hand.
Supply Picture
The thing that changed is on the heifer side. Heifer carcasses are running about 60 pounds over a year ago and have added roughly 14 pounds in the last month. Steers barely moved. Heavier heifers mean more fat coming off the rail every week, and that fat lands on a trim market that still cannot find a floor. Plants are profitable on every plausible operating cost, roughly $96 to $246 a head, so cash stays soft as long as the packer has no reason to reach.
Screwworm turned up in a ranch horse in Texas this week. It does not touch your boxes. It matters only for whether Douglas keeps crossing feeders under the daily caps and whether Santa Teresa opens on schedule, and that is 2027 beef.
Demand Situation
The cutout is flat over a month, and that flat number hides two markets going opposite ways. Ribeye is up about 8% in four weeks and strip loin about 5%, both now expensive for September. Retailers put more loin on the ad page again and cut ground beef features hard; that attention is the support under the middles, and attention is not a forecast. Do not chase either one.
The other side is 50CL, down about 36% in a month and well under where mid September usually puts it. We called it higher on September 5 and it went lower instead; one week left, and we were early at best. The main cause is the risk we named that day, carcass weights: the fat keeps coming faster than grinders can use it, with 90s still priced far above normal and imported lean offered cheaper on top. Chuck cuts keep firming while the trim under them collapses, so buy chuck to need, not ahead.
Pork Market
Bellies broke hard a week after we said the sandwich pull was done. They are near 140 now, off about 27% in a month, and they dragged the pork cutout down with them; back ribs and the loin combo went along for the ride. Slicers had fall coverage bought before the break, so nothing was left to bid. That part is finished. Bellies sit well under their normal September level, pork packers are losing $3 to $11 a head so nobody can discount further, and the ad page is rotating toward processed pork as fall sets up.
Chicken Market
Chicken is the most discounted protein on the US ad page, and it has been for a month. Boneless breast sits about a third under its usual September level, tenders about half, wings a third, and none of them moved this week; the discount is not new, it is just not closing. Retailers noticed: about 40,000 more stores featured chicken this week, most of it parts and deli. That is where the US retail dollar is going, which is the demand flow the beef middles are competing with. Canada is its own market here: supply management keeps chicken on a different track. One wrinkle for the Canadian buyer: CFIA restricted North Dakota poultry on Friday over HPAI, so check origin on anything crossing next week.
Summary
New call: belly 13-17# firms over the next two weeks from about 140. The discount is real, the buyer who was going to step away already did, and a packer losing money on every head has nothing left to give on the quote. Frozen pork stocks are under their norm, so there is no freezer overhang to sell into a bounce. Buy bellies now rather than waiting for a print that proves it. On beef, let the middles come to you and hold your 50CL position without adding to it. The one thing that kills the belly call is the hog side: hogs are heavy, feeding one still pays, and if the kill runs harder into October the extra bellies bury the discount for another month.