Meat market read, Monday, July 6, 2026

Outside skirt is at 1333¢/lb after a 303¢/lb single-session print, and history says it sheds 120¢/lb from here on average with the downside range running to 152¢/lb. That run is cooked. The problem is the rest of the grind and trim complex isn't giving buyers relief either. 81% ground beef dropped 9¢/lb on the week, which is one of the few soft spots, but the broader lean complex stays elevated and the 73s are still up 30¢/lb on the month with a seasonal that fades only modestly from here. Meanwhile, Select cutout gave back more than Choice at last close, both on thin beef loads, and that divergence with pork, which is moving on heavy loads with a firming carcass, tells you the beef bid just isn't there right now. Chuck short rib adding 30¢/lb on the session with a 19¢/lb seasonal tailwind over the next four weeks is the one quiet corner worth knowing about. Beef supply keeps narrowing, frozen buffer keeps thinning, and the packer margin stays deep red. The plate spike is noise. The chuck read is not.

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