Meat market read, Thursday, June 4, 2026

The NASS kill print this afternoon is the hinge today, and what it's likely to confirm is already visible in the lean trim complex. Fresh 81s gained 13¢/lb on the week without a single day-over-day tick, which is the pipeline showing stubborn tightness rather than a fresh bid. That flatline with a weekly gain usually means the supply side is doing the work. The short loin at 969¢/lb jumped 81¢/lb overnight but its four-week seasonal forward has never closed higher in any year of the sample, so that single-session print looks like it runs out of road fast. Meanwhile the sirloin flap shed 85¢/lb in one session and 113¢/lb on the week, which puts the middle and end-meat carcass well into divergence from the lean lane. If today's kill number comes in at or below the current minus-6.7% year-on-year pace, 92-94CL's flat weekly hold at 485¢/lb becomes harder to sustain at that level rather than above it.

meatread.com